According to survey feedback from attendees, one of the most popular and thought-provoking lectures was by Doug Duncan, Chief Economist for Fannie Mae. The presentation discussed residential market trends heading into 2012, and emphasized the the downturn's negative affect on homeownership... a concept directly related to an earlier blog post of ours (entitled "Young Folks Aren't Buying Houses: So What Does That Mean?"). And this concept of multifamily ownership vs. rentership outlook ties into a current project of ours in which we are helping a nonprofit organization decide how to best redevelop a portion of its aging housing stock.
Some takeaways from Duncan's presentation:
- The US is getting older, but the age distribution is pretty uniform:
- The West is younger than the East:
- Homeownership rates reflect this age disparity (i.e., more people own on the East Coast):
- 70% of people believe now is a good time to buy (10% believe now is a good time to sell)
- Most people believe that the worst is over for their own personal finances: 36% believe their own personal finances are going to get better next year, 18% believe it’s getting worse
- However, consumer outlook is negative about the overall economy: 77% believe the economy is on the wrong track, 16% believe it’s on the right track.
- While the trend toward rentership continues to grow...
- 70% still believe “ownership is superior to renting.”
My question is: once the economy turns around, to what extent will opinions on homeownership bounce back?
You can view Doug Duncan's full presentation and links to many other great presentations from the forum here:
